Forecasting Central Asia

The Friedrich Ebert Foundation, in partnership with the OSCE Academy and SPCE Hub, is working on a study titled “Forecasting Central Asia''.

The study explores the upcoming trends in Central Asia (CA) and CA’s expectations from Europe. Upon finalization of the study, we plan to conduct several online, offline, and hybrid events in CA and Europe. The study aims to provide a forecast of the political and economic developments in CA in the next two years, based on an opinion survey covering the following topics

• Domestic and regional developments
• EU-Central Asia relations including CA’s expectations from Europe
• Global challenges affecting the region

The study will be implemented in two phases. In the first phase, approximately 200 experts from CA, Europe, and other regions will be surveyed and asked to nominate three or more individuals who are interested in the region but are not experts in a narrow sense. In the second phase, the respondents nominated by the experts will be invited to participate in the online survey.

Since gaining their independence from the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries (CA) have been comparatively stable for the last 30 years. We are now witnessing its transition into a new, more dynamic period whose new developments require more attention from all relevant stakeholders, including local policy-makers, CSOs, and involved experts outside the region. This new regional dynamic calls for a deeper analysis of key processes from the EU’s side. The Central Asian strategy, adopted by the EU Commission in 2019, is in particular need of region-based analytical insights into the situation.

While there is a large body of research on the region itself, there is a notable absence of credible analysis on trends and development predictions in both the region and in regards to its relations with the EU.

This study intends to anchor the analytical forecasting approach by producing information easily accessible to all interested actors.